THE PRESIDENT HOLDS – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  The last Rasmussen report before the Labor Day weekend indicates that the president's support is holding.  However, there was no upward bump reflecting his good work in responding to Hurricane Harvey.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 42% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 27% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 44% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him an improving Presidential Approval Index rating of -17.

COMMENT: Mr. Trump's overall approval rating runs from high thirties to low forties, depending on the poll, with a few outliers.  But that's pretty much where he was last election day, and he was elected.  Or, to put it another way, Hillary lost. 

We can make a cautious assumption that Trump underpolls, and has broader support than the polling indicates.  But that is only an assumption.  He needs a period with some legislative victories, and a lack of self-inflicted wounds, to move upward.

When Labor Day weekend is over, the nation will move to the start of the 2018 midterm campaigns.  My own sense is that this will be one of the most brutal political seasons in memory.  Everyone is angry.  Hating Trump is a pastime for the Democratic Party.  The Republican Party is divided, with some of its leaders apparently praying for the president to go away.  Meanwhile, our media reminds us of a national tabloid that can't make it into supermarkets.

I do not expect too much elevated discussion.

I do expect talk about whether both parties need to be replaced.

And I do expect that the 2018 campaigns will be partially overshadowed by rising activity by potential 2020 presidential contenders, not one of whom looks particularly strong at this stage.  By contenders, I have to include Clinton, Biden and Sanders, who cling to the limelight. 

And yes, I do expect serious chatter about whether Trump will give up on the Republican Party and form his own third force, threatening to run as an "independent Republican" in 2020.  I think the chances of that are actually pretty strong.  It would feed Trump's ego and throw American politics into tornado conditions, which he likes.

Fun.

September 1,  2017